The Yield Curve

In one of the previous blogs, I had mentioned about the negative yield curve. Well....thats what the economy is going through now. A negative yield curve is one of the indicators that has always played prequel to economic slumps in the past. An example can be quoted from the 1998 US Stock market slumpdown, during which the US market saw a lot of IT based startup companies who had borrowed a lot of funds for keeping the business running but in the end many went down. (I recommend Startup.com, a real life documentary, which shows the nuances of not only starting a new company, but also keeping it running during a market downturn)

To get an idea of an inverted curve, try plotting a graph between the rate of return for Government bonds and the period to maturity. If the plotted curve is sloping upwards, the economy has lots in store for you. If the curve is sloping downwards, and you are a fresher who has just arrived in the market, you are in neck deep trouble!!

Image Courtesy: www.Wikipedia.org

Thats how Mao's cookie crumbled!!!

You pick up your favourite toy you used while you were a kid when you notice that familiar yet unwanted tag- 'Made in China'.

One of the reasons why Chinese goods are preferred lies behind the way the Chinese currency Renminbi or more popularly called 'Yuan' is evaluated.

You see, currencies like Indian Rupee, American Dollar, GBP (Great British Pound) are traded openly in a separate market (also called as forex). This trading happens as long as each unit of currency holds a certain value against some other currency and this value keeps on changing.

I remember when I changed my Binocular with my brother for his geometry box (which I badly needed!). For my bro (who was 7 years old), Binoculars were like heaven. So he gave in.

That's whats happening with currencies. They trade when they hold value.

Now, in the last decade, for 1$ you could get 8.28 Yuan of work done! So as a company in US, I send more $'s into China. But later, in 2005, China valued Yuan to 8.11 Yuan/$. Now I am only able to get 8.11 Yuan of work done by my Chinese friends for my precious 1 $. It is at this point that I start focusing more on quality. I now start looking at countries which offer more quality goods.

What are all those traders shouting about?!?!?!

Ever wondered what the stock market is about. The following is just an example of what is speculation in the stock exchange!!!

It was autumn, and the Red Indians asked their New Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild. Since he was a Red Indian chief in a modern society, he couldn't tell what the weather was going to be..

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his Tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked "Is the coming winter going to be cold?" "It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the weather man Responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood. A week later, he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?" "Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "It's definitely going to be a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find. Two weeks later, he called the National Weather Service again.
"Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?" "Absolutely, " The Man replied. "It's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, "The Red Indians are collecting wood like Crazy."

This is how stock market works!!!